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As nearly all professional bettor will tell you, backing heavy favourites is a sure fire way to the poorhouse. That is common knowledge, right? Perhaps, but there's one problem with that type of thinking: it's dead wrong.

The received wisdom is the linesmakers skew their odds on heavy favourites because the public love betting on the most effective teams. The bookies no doubt see a flurry of parlays involving clubs like Chelsea, Barcelona and Juventus every weekend. Surely there is value in taking the underdog in these situations, isn't there?

In reality, numerous research has shown that blindly backing long shots is a losing proposition in the long term. To determine why that is the situation, we have to discover how a bookmaker operates. Considering that the bookies take most of their action on short-priced favourites, it's often assumed they may be exposed to big liabilities if all of the hot teams win. While this is sometimes the case, and many bookmakers suffer months of huge losses, there are a number of ways a bookie can protect himself.

It is critical to do not forget that most heavy favourites are combined in parlays involving at least three teams. A bookmaker only needs one loser to take his customer's money. As such, there is little need to lower the odds on a "public" team. Many sportsbooks will even inflate the odds of a hot favourite to attract new customers, safe in the knowledge that parlay players will not hurt their bottom line.

Should the favourite's odds are an accurate reflection of it's true probability of winning, the bookmaker must make adjustments elsewhere. That usually means offering worse odds on the underdog as well as the draw. Understanding the concept of theoretical hold can make this clearer.

When making lines, a sportsbook shall offer odds on each team which give it a slight edge, ensuring a profit regardless how the game turns out. This is called simply click the next website page Theoretical Hold and is expressed as a share. It represents the combined quantity of customers' bets that the bookmaker expects to keep.

It's called theoretical because in reality a bookmaker rarely has balanced action on all sides. If a bookie takes the majority of his bets on a heavy favourite, he can offer it at a far more generous price and accept a smaller profit margin. Short-priced favourites generally have small margins, but high volumes. Bigger odds mean bigger margins. There is little incentive for a bookie to offer competitive odds on a big underdog if he doesn't expect much betting interest in that team.