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Smart sports betting, and football betting mainly, is depending on the skills of the teams involved compared to random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is what makes a highly effective sports bettor.
Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and also are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. On the flip side, sports betting - and also poker - isn't based upon random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. This means the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.
Although most playing online casino gambling agent strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer an effective means of betting. Within the long haul, the failure of such systems might be more or less inevitable because it is based upon the Gambler's Fallacy. Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken impression that particular results are "due" based upon previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. For example, the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that this means tails is "due" to come up next; whereas, in fact, the chances that the next coin toss will end in tails is precisely the exact same irrespective of the number of times heads has come up already.
In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most comprehension of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor which is hoping that the desired outcome "is due" based on probabilities. There's absolutely no sound mathematical probability that any specific football-team "is due" anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The major point for these runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.
That is not to say that random chance isn't involved, of-course it really is. Any team might make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. On the other hand the smart sports bettor knows that the level of skill of the team in question is a lot more very likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This really is what makes a successful sports bettor over time. Anybody can get lucky on occasion, but if one learns to make intelligent bets depending on the skills of the teams involved, one is a lot more likely to win significant quantities of money over the long term.