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Smart sports betting, and football betting most importantly, is according to the skills of the teams involved compared to random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is what makes an effective sports bettor.
Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and also are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. On the contrary, sports betting - and also poker - isn't based upon random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. It means that the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.
Although most gambling strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer a highly effective means of betting. In the long run, the failure of such systems is more or less inevitable because it is based upon the Gambler's Fallacy. Gambler's Fallacy will be the mistaken impression that specific results are "due" based on previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. One example is the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that this means tails is "due" to come up next; whereas, in all reality, the chances that the next coin toss will result in tails is exactly the exact same in spite of the number of times heads has come up already.
In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most familiarity with the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor that is hoping that the desired outcome "is due" based on probabilities. There's absolutely no sound mathematical probability that any specific football-team "is due" anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The critical element for these runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.
That is not to say that random chance just isn't involved, of course it is. Any team can make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. Even so the smart sports bettor knows that the skill level of the team in question is much more very likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This is what makes a successful sports bettor over the long term. Anybody can get lucky from time to time, but if one learns to make intelligent bets depending on the skills of the teams involved, one will be much more more likely to win significant quantities of money over mouse click the up coming internet site long term.