Excellent Gambling Fact 118457482516462952
Smart sports betting, and football betting especially, is in accordance with the skills of the teams involved as opposed to random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is exactly what makes an effective sports bettor.
Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. Alternatively, sports betting - as well as poker - is just not according to random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. This means that the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.
Although most gambling strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer a highly effective means of betting. In the long term, the failure of such systems might be more or professional online gamble less inevitable because it is based upon the Gambler's Fallacy. Gambler's Fallacy will be the mistaken impression that specific results are "due" based upon previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. As an example, the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that therefore tails is "due" to come up next; whereas, actually, the chances that the next coin toss will result in tails is exactly the exact same no matter the number of times heads has come up already.
In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most familiarity with the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor that is hoping that the desired outcome "is due" based on probabilities. There is absolutely no sound mathematical probability that any specific football team "is due" anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The critical element of these runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.
That's not to say that random chance just isn't involved, of-course it is. Any team could make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. On the other hand the smart sports bettor knows that the skill level of the team in question will be much more very likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This is what makes a successful sports bettor in the long run. Anybody can get lucky occasionally, but if one learns to make intelligent bets in accordance with the skills of the teams involved, one is significantly more prone to win significant quantities of money over the long run.