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The point spread's sole purpose is to even the betting to ensure that the total amount bet on the underdog is equal to the total amount bet on the favorite. The book makes its money on the vigorish or juice. As such, if the amount bet on the underdog is equivalent to the total amount bet on the underdog, the book is guaranteed a 10% profit on half the bets made, regardless which team covers.
The best linesmakers are people who have a feel for just what the betting public believes. The betting line they set reflects the betting public's perception of the strength of the two teams. It does not necessarily reflect the true relative strengths of the two teams. As well as the sportsbook betting public's perception is often wrong.
Once you recognize that concept, the rest will begin to fall into place. You shall have an edge over most bettors.
Be objective. Listen to you head not your heart. Do not bet against the Cowboys just because you want to see them lose. And, do not bet on a team simply because you like the team. And do not bet on your favorite team if you are an avid fan. It's nearly impossible to be objective. Fans usually be overly optimistic about their favorite team or overly pessimistic if things are not going well.
Be consistent. Bet the exact same amount on each game. Some players bet $200 on games they think are locks and $100 on ones they're not so sure of. It's those not so sure of bets that rack up the losses. In case you are uncertain about a game, do not bet it.
Should you bet on the home team? Generally no. However, in the event you can be objective, you've got an advantage. You probably know more about your house team than those in other parts of the country because the local media gives extensive coverage to the home team, coverage which is not shared with the rest of the country.
Look for Trends. If you spot a trend, factor that into your decision. Some teams have other teams' number. Within the last four years the 49ers have covered against the Rams 7 of 8 times and the one time they did not, Young was hurt and they had to play Druckmiller, a rookie. Within the last 5 years, Green Bay has lost 4 out the 5 games played in Detroit.
Trends are not guarantees. The trend might not hold and also you lose your bet. Yet, remember the reason is to improve your chances of winning. According to past performance, if you bet on the 49ers to cover against the Rams, you're more prone to win your bet than to lose.
Place your bets late within the week. By waiting until the end of the week, you'll know about any injuries to key players that may affect how you bet. Regularly, players are injured or aggravate an injury in practice. Or what seemed like a minor injury on Tuesday may turn out to be one that can keep the player out of the game. Also, weather conditions might affect your bet. Inclement weather often keeps the scoring down.
Limit the Range of Games You Bet. More just isn't better. The optimum number seems to be 3 to six games. Any more and the winning percentages have a tendency to decline since the law of averages is needed. (The better games you play the more likely you are to have 50% winners and 50% losers. And that is a losing season, as a result of the juice.) On top of that, it's easier to concentrate on a limited number of games.
Losing Streaks Happen. No matter what, you can count on a losing streak. It happens to handicappers, professional gamblers, casual bettors, and even books. Be prepared to ride it out. If you are using Pro Predictor or a handicapping service, you need to stick with it throughout the season as a way to come out a winner. Leaving at the first sign of a losing streak will guarantee you lose for the season. Suppose you drop out only to possess the handicapper go 5 for 5 the next week. Those are 5 wins you will never have and also will affect your overall winning percentage.
Never Bet Against a Streak. This really is a key to increasing your winning and decreasing your losses. Consider this a betting mantra. Say it over and over until it's firmly embedded in your mind. Never bet against a streak. And, if you are going to bet on streaks, bet the streak shall continue. And it does not matter whether or not the streak is a winning streak or possibly a losing streak. Ironically, logic will tell you that the odds of a streak continuing double with each additional week and you should bet against it. But there is a hidden trap.
Think about the following scenario: In week 10, you notice that Green Bay has covered for 4 weeks in a row. Should you bet that the streak will end? Of course, per week the odds against the streak continuing double.
Betting Against the Streak: You bet $100 against Green Bay covering in week 11. Sure enough, they fail to cover. You're $100 ahead. But what happens whenever they do cover and the streak continues. You're $110 in the hole. What do you need to do? Do you bet another $100 against the streak in week 12 since the odds against the streak continuing are even greater? In the event that you do, and also the streak ends, you win $100 and now will be just $10 loser and that's the end of that. Still, should the streak continues, you are now $220 in the hole. What do you need to do now? Do you bite the bullet and take your losses or do you fall into the trap of chasing your loses? Do you continue and attempt to get back several of your losses? Do you double up within an try to cover your loses? Do not do it. Doubling up is never a great idea. It's another trap that will cause you to have huge losses and it is not worth the gamble.
Betting with the Streak: You bet $100 that Green Bay will cover again in week 11. Should they fail to cover, you have lost $110 and that is that, much like a regular straight bet. But what happens should they do cover and also the streak continues. You are $100 to the great and if you continue to bet on the streak, the most you can lose is $10. If you bet another $100 with the streak in week 12 and the streak ends, your net losses are $10. Nonetheless, in the event the streak continues, you're guaranteed to come out at least $90 ahead and excellent online soccer with each addition week the streak continues, you add another $100 to your winnings.
As such, if you bet against a streak, the most you can win is $100 but you the total amount you can lose is limited only through the length of the streak. If you bet with the streak, the most you may lose is $110, but the amount you may win is limited only through the length of the streak.