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Smart sports betting, and football betting first and foremost, is depending on the skills of the teams involved in contrast to random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding i thought about this difference is exactly what makes an effective sports bettor.

Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. Conversely, sports betting - as well as poker - is just not according to random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. Consequently the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.

Although most gambling strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer an effective means of betting. In the long term, the failure of such systems might be more or less inevitable since it is based upon the Gambler's Fallacy. Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken impression that particular results are "due" determined by previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. One example is the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that therefore tails is "due" to come up next; whereas, in fact, the chances that the next coin toss will cause tails is precisely the exact same irrespective of the range of times heads has come up already.

In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most comprehension of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor which is hoping that the desired outcome "is due" based on probabilities. There's no sound mathematical probability that any specific football-team "is due" anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The critical element of such runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.

That's not to state that random chance is not involved, of-course it's. Any team will make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. On the other hand the smart sports bettor knows that the skill level of the team in question is a lot more very likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This really is what makes a successful sports bettor over time. Anyone can get lucky on occasion, but if one learns to make intelligent bets in accordance with the skills of the teams involved, one is much more more likely to win significant quantities of money over the long haul.